Policy Discrimination with and without Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility

Can the Pareto criterion guide policymakers who do not know the true model of the economy? If policymakers specify ex ante preferences for agents, then Pareto improvements from a distorted status quo are usually possible, and with more commodities than states, one can implement almost every Pareto optimum. Unlike the standard second welfare theorem, planners cannot dictate allocations: agents must trade. Unfortunately ex ante preferences impose interpersonal comparisons. If policymakers merely aim to maximize some social welfare function then optimal policies form an open set; hence small changes in the environment do not necessitate any policy response. Planners with symmetric information about agents can sometimes intervene without making interpersonal comparisons.     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

产业集群的驱动因素分析及政策建议

产业集群是一种世界性的经济现象。中国产业集群发展还在起步阶段,对产业集群驱动因素的分析,有助于发展、提升产业集群的竞争优势,加快区域经济的发展。     

控制权性质影响税收敏感性吗?——基于企业劳动力需求的检验

西方学者研究表明企业所得税是劳动力需求的重要影响因素,这一理论在中国是否适用?中国大部分上市公司为国有控股企业,这一特殊的制度背景是否会影响企业所得税与劳动力需求的关系?本文基于2007年企业所得税改革这一外生政策变化,在检验西方企业所得税与劳动力需求关系的理论在中国是否适用的基础上,就不同控制权的性质是否会影响企业劳动力需求的税收敏感性进行了检验。研究发现企业所得税税率降低和"就业税盾"增加提高了企业劳动力需求,但这种税率和"就业税盾"的变化对国有控股企业劳动力需求变化的影响要显著小于非国有控股企业。这表明税收是影响企业劳动力需求的重要因素,但国有控制权使得这种税收敏感性变弱。本文的研究结果不仅丰富了相关领域的国际学术文献,而且对我国就业政策的制定具有政策含义。     

国有股权重、政策性负担与绩效——国有银行战略引资方案探析

本文结合当前国有银行战略引资的改革背景,构建银行业混合寡占、国有银行混合持股的古诺竞争均衡模型,研究认为战略引资后的均衡股权结构与国有银行所承担的政策性负担及私有银行数量密切相关;国有银行政策性负担与私有银行的经营绩效正相关,但从整体来看则损害了社会总福利.另外,政策性负担不影响市场可容纳的最大银行数量,但会影响达到这一数量时国有银行的股权结构.     

国际资本流动对中国货币政策影响的实证研究

在开放经济的"三元冲突"中,中国选择了固定汇率,较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性,即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动.但在这种组合下,随着我国资本流动规模的扩大,货币政策独立性也将进一步丧失.对于中国,货币政策的自主权至关重要,除非有能力继续维持更严格的资本管制,我国必须逐步扩大汇率的浮动区间.     

上市公司股利政策的特点、成因及对策

股利政策是上市公司将税后收益在股东所得股利和留存收益之间进行的合理配置的策略,会对公司的股票市价和公司的市场形象产生巨大的影响。本文主要根据上市公司股利政策分配方案,全面客观地对我国的股票市场进行分析,并为公司今后制定出合理的股利分配政策提出参考意见。     

我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。     

我国财政收支划分的立法研究

财政收支划分是财政管理体制的重要组成部分.在市场经济体制下,财政收支划分立法有利于政府职能的履行和公共财政的运行,是完善分税制财政管理体制的丛然要求.完整的财政收支划分法律制度应当由财政级次划分、财政收支分类、财政支出划分和财政收入划分等制度构成.